WN 4741 · LGA → MDW

departs 5:39 PM ET · arrives 6:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4741 · LGA → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?