WN 474 · HNL → LAS

departs 8:06 AM HT · arrives 4:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 7% of the time recently

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.29 in

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 474 · HNL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?