WN 4750 · MDW → OMA

departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 9:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±1 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 486 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at OMA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 8pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

OMA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4750 · MDW → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?