WN 4761 · LAS → SJC

took off 7:46 AM PT · landed 8:42 AM PT (scheduled 7:37 AM PT → 9:08 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SJC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4761 · LAS → SJC

Odds over time

How late did it get to SJC?