Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4762
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4762 · MCO → MDW
departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 53%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.94 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.