WN 4776 · SMF → DEN

took off 9:47 AM PT · landed 12:49 PM MT (scheduled 9:30 AM PT → 12:58 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4776 · SMF → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?