WN 4777 · AUS → DEN

took off 4:27 PM CT · expected to land 5:05 PM MT (scheduled 3:42 PM CT → 4:58 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts −29 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

DEN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4777 · AUS → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?