WN 4778 · BNA → AUS

took off 4:40 PM CT · expected to land 6:18 PM CT (scheduled 4:12 PM CT → 6:27 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AUS?

LIVE

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4778 · BNA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?