Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4791 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4791 · PHX → TPA

departs 2:22 PM MT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4791 · PHX → TPA

Odds over time