Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4797 LANDED 4:03 PM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 4797 · MDW → LGA

took off 1:28 PM CT · landed 4:03 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4797 · MDW → LGA

Odds over time