WN 4801 · MDW → MHT

took off 6:48 PM CT · expected to land 9:31 PM ET (scheduled 5:49 PM CT → 9:07 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?

91% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MHT?

LIVE

On time or early
9%
15–30 min late
47%
30 min–1 hour late
44%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at MHT that day

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

MHT (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4801 · MDW → MHT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MHT?