Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4802 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4802 · MDW → SAN

departs 8:40 PM CT · arrives 10:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

67% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 8pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.84 in

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4802 · MDW → SAN

Odds over time