WN 4806 · ORF → MDW

took off 8:14 AM ET · landed 8:56 AM CT (scheduled 7:57 AM ET → 9:12 AM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MDW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.00 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4806 · ORF → MDW

Odds over time

How late did it get to MDW?