Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4811 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 4811 · RNO → LAS

departs 7:33 PM PT · arrives 8:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4811 · RNO → LAS

Odds over time