WN 4812 · ABQ → PHX

took off 8:12 AM MT · landed 8:03 AM MT (scheduled 7:42 AM MT → 8:06 AM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ABQ that day

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ 7am departures from ABQ are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.15 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4812 · ABQ → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?