WN 4815 · BWI → DAL

departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 5:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DAL that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4815 · BWI → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?