Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4838 LANDED 11:05 AM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4838 · SAN → DAL

took off 6:41 AM PT · landed 11:05 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DAL that day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SAN are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4838 · SAN → DAL

Odds over time