Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4841 · SAN → OAK
departs 9:00 PM PT · arrives 10:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 40%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 15%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.