WN 4845 · DAL → JAX

departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 6:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DAL that day

↑ 2pm departures from DAL are often late

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.15 in

JAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4845 · DAL → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?