WN 4850 · ABQ → DEN

took off 6:16 AM MT · landed 7:09 AM MT (scheduled 6:04 AM MT → 7:27 AM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ABQ that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ABQ are usually not late

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.15 in

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4850 · ABQ → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?