WN 4866 · MDW → OKC

departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 10:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OKC?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OKC that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 8pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ OKC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

OKC (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.62 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4866 · MDW → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?