WN 4869 · PHX → DAL

departs 3:21 PM MT · arrives 7:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day

↑ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4869 · PHX → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?