Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4873 · SAN → BOI
departs 10:15 AM PT · arrives 1:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 11%
Fri 10/2 9%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BOI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BOI?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↑
10am departures from SAN are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
BOI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BOI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.