Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4885 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:46 AM MT, ETA 4:38 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4885 · DEN → TPA

took off 11:46 AM MT · expected to land 4:38 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4885 · DEN → TPA

Odds over time