WN 4897 · MDW → PHL

departs 11:24 AM CT · arrives 2:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from MDW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.51 in

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,420 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4897 · MDW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?