WN 489 · BWI → LAX

departs 3:46 PM ET · arrives 6:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 489 · BWI → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?