WN 4911 · BUF → MDW

took off 9:08 AM ET · landed 9:24 AM CT (scheduled 8:40 AM ET → 9:20 AM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MDW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MDW that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ MDW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4911 · BUF → MDW

Odds over time

How late did it get to MDW?