WN 491 · MDW → MCO

departs 6:23 PM CT · arrives 9:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.50 in

MCO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 491 · MDW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?