WN 4944 · SAN → AUS

departs 2:53 PM PT · arrives 7:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4944 · SAN → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?