WN 494 · BNA → MCO

departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 494 · BNA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?