Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4956 · SEA → AUS
departs 11:10 AM PT · arrives 5:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at AUS that day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.