Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 495 LANDED 8:38 AM MT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 495 · BNA → DEN

took off 7:21 AM CT · landed 8:38 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 495 · BNA → DEN

Odds over time