Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4962 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

WN 4962 · DEN → OMA

took off 6:46 PM MT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:02 PM MT → 8:36 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ 6pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

OMA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4962 · DEN → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?