Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4964 · TPA → STL
departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 58%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+32 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +32 pts in 24h
+32 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +27 pts in 24h
+27 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.31 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.