WN 4971 · DEN → PHL

departs 3:05 PM MT · arrives 8:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.44 in

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,443 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4971 · DEN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?