WN 4984 · MDW → SFO

took off 7:22 PM CT · expected to land 9:12 PM PT (scheduled 7:04 PM CT → 9:35 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.98 in

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4984 · MDW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?