Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4987 LANDED 5:27 PM CT, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 4987 · AUS → HRL

took off 4:42 PM CT · landed 5:27 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

HRL (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4987 · AUS → HRL

Odds over time