Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4998 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 4998 · MDW → PVD

took off 6:22 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:57 PM CT → 9:20 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PVD?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 5pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PVD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

PVD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4998 · MDW → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?