WN 506 · AUS → MCO

departs 12:58 PM CT · arrives 4:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

MCO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 506 · AUS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?