Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5075
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 5075 · BNA → MDW
departs 2:15 PM CT · arrives 3:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.94 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.