WN 510 · AUS → SJC

took off 6:53 PM CT · expected to land 8:08 PM PT (scheduled 6:32 PM CT → 8:22 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJC?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.13 in

SJC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 510 · AUS → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?