WN 559 · MDW → SAT

took off 10:39 AM CT · expected to land 12:49 PM CT (scheduled 10:19 AM CT → 1:07 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.70 in

SAT (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 559 · MDW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?