WN 636 · MDW → MCO

took off 8:51 AM CT · landed 11:53 AM ET (scheduled 8:23 AM CT → 11:57 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±3 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.00 in

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 636 · MDW → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?