Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 695
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 695 · LAS → SMF
departs 10:25 AM PT · arrives 12:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 12%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.