Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 765 LANDED 9:30 AM ET, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 765 · AUS → BWI

took off 5:39 AM CT · landed 9:30 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from AUS are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 765 · AUS → BWI

Odds over time