Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 806 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 806 · MDW → PDX

departs 9:10 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 806 · MDW → PDX

Odds over time