WN 823 · ABQ → SAN

took off 6:52 AM MT · landed 7:27 AM PT (scheduled 6:48 AM MT → 7:50 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ABQ that day

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ABQ are usually not late

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.16 in

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 823 · ABQ → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?