WN 8506 · PDX → OAK

took off 11:07 AM PT · expected to land 12:21 PM PT (scheduled 10:46 AM PT → 12:45 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OAK?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from PDX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 8506 · PDX → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?