Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8509 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 8509 · BWI → GSO

took off 8:51 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 8509 · BWI → GSO

Odds over time