Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 859 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 859 · MDW → SMF

departs 9:05 PM CT · arrives 10:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 9pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.98 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 859 · MDW → SMF

Odds over time